بررسی مدل‌های قطر- ارتفاع گونه پده (Populus euophratica Oliv.) در جنگل‌های کران‌رودی شوش، استان خوزستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیاء بهبهان، بهبهان، ایران.

2 دانشیار، گروه جنگلداری، دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیاء بهبهان.

3 استادیار ، گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه صنعتی خاتم الانبیاء بهبهان، بهبهان، ایران.

چکیده

سابقه و هدف: اندازه‌گیری قطر برابر سینه در مطالعات میدانی نسبت به ارتفاع درختان ساده‌تر، دقیق‌تر و کم هزینه‌تر است. فهم و درک ارتباط بین قطر و ارتفاع برای توسعه مدل‌های رویش، مدل‌های آلومتریک جهت برآورد زی‌توده و ترسیب کربن در راستای مدیریت جنگل امری ضروری و اساسی می‌باشد. وجود رابطه قوی بین قطر و ارتفاع درختان به عنوان یک شاخص مفید در مدیریت جنگل محسوب شده و می‌توان آن را با مدل‌های ریاضی توصیف کرد. با توجه به اینکه مدل‌های غیرخطی انعطاف پذیر، دارای قابلیت تفسیر و قوی هستند لذا در این مطالعه برخی از مهم‌ترین مدل‌ها مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت.
مواد و روش ها: در این تحقیق 21 مدل غیرخطی به همراه مدل خطی ساده به داده‌های قطر- ارتفاع درختان پده در منطقه شوش استان خوزستان و در قطعات نمونه 100 متر مربعی برازش داده‌ شد. داده‌های 1163 درخت پده مورد استفاده قرار گرفت و بطور تصادفی به دو بخش تقسیم شد، 80% داده‌ها جهت برآورد پارامترهای مدل استفاده شد (برازش مدل) و مابقی داده‌ها (20%) جهت اعتبارسنجی مدل نگه داشته شدند. تمامی مدل‌ها با استفاده از معیارهای ارزیابی عملکرد مدل مثل: آماره t پارامترهای مدل، درصد مجذور میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE%)، درصد میانگین قدرمطلق خطا (MAE%)، درصد میانگین اریب (Bias mean%)، معیار اطلاعات آکائیک (AIC) و معیار اطلاعات بیزی (BIC) مورد ارزیابی و مقایسه قرار گرفت.
یافته ها: پارامترهای 8 مدل در سطح خطای 5% معنی‌دار نشد. مقادیر RMSE%، MAE%، درصد میانگین اریب، AIC و BIC برای مدل M12 به ترتیب: 98/8%، 78/6%، 0010/0-%، 82/1451 و 73/1469 بدست آمد. همین مقادیر برای مدل M21 به ترتیب: 15/9%، 94/6%، 0005/%0، 95/1476 و 86/1494 بدست آمد. مقادیر پیش‌بینی و واقعی ارتفاع در این دو مدل در سطح خطای 5% تفاوت معنی-داری نداشتند. نتایج آزمون t جفتی نشان داد که مدل‌های غیرخطی M21 و M12 ارتفاع درختان پده را با دقت مناسب پیش‌بینی کرده-اند. دو مدل (Prodan1 با نام M12) و (Prodan2 با نام M21) بر اساس رتبه‌بندی تمام معیارهای ارزیابی عملکرد مدل در داده‌های برازش و اعتبار به عنوان بهترین مدل انتخاب شد.
نتیجه گیری: اکثریت مدل‌های دو پارامتری و برخی از مدل‌های سه پارامتری برازش معنی‌داری را با داده‌ها نشان دادند. اما از نظر کلیه معیارهای ارزیابی عملکرد دو مدل سه پارامتری به عنوان بهترین مدل انتخاب شدند. نتایج این مطالعه، تنوع انواع مدل‌های غیرخطی دو و سه پارامتری، وجود مدل‌های مخلوط که در کنار متغیرهای اصلی یک یا دو متغیر کمکی را نیز در مدل‌سازی دخالت می‌دهند و رویشگاه‌های متفاوت با ساختار مختلف بیان‌گر این موضوع می‌تواند باشد که تحقیقات بیشتری در این رابطه صورت پذیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling height–diameter relationship for Populus euphratica in Shoosh riparian forests, Khoozestan province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Reza Berihi 1
  • Reza Basiri 2
  • Maleeheh Mozayyan 3
1 3Assistant professor, Range and Watershed Management Department., Faculty of Natural Sciences, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of technology, I.R. of Iran.
2 Associate professor, Department of Forestry, Faculty of Natural Resources and the Environment, Behbahan Khatam Al-Anbia University of Technology, Iran.
3 3Assistant professor, Range and Watershed Management Department., Faculty of Natural Sciences, Behbahan Khatam Alanbia University of technology, I.R. of Iran.
چکیده [English]

Background and objectives: Accurate in situ measurement of DBH is easy and cost-effective but, height measurement is labor-intensive, time-consuming and expensive. Understanding its height–diameter relationship is essential for developing growth, biomass production and carbon storage prediction models to be applied in the current forest management projects. The existence of a strong relationship between the diameter and the height of trees is considered as a useful index in forest management and it can be described with mathematical models. Considering that non-linear models are flexible, interpretable and strong, therefore some of the most important models were used in this study.
Materials and methods: In this research, 21 widely used candidate nonlinear and one simple linear models were fitted to tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH) data for Populus euphratica Oliv. within a 100 square meter plots at Shoosh area of Khuzestan province. Data from 1163 trees were used and split randomly into two sets: 80 % of the data were used to estimate model parameters (model fitting), and the remaining data (20 %) were reserved for model validation. All model performances were evaluated and compared by means of model performance criteria such as t-statistics of model parameters, root mean square error percentage (RMSE%), mean absolute error percentage (MAE%), mean bias error percentage (ME%), Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC).
Results: The parameters of 8 models were not significant at a level of 5%. RMSE, MAE, Bias, AIC and BIC values for M12 model were obtained: 8.98%, 6.78%, -0.0010%, 1451.82 and 1469.73, respectively. The same values were obtained for M21 model: 9.15%, 6.94%, 0.0005%, 1476.95 and 1494.86 respectively. The predicted and actual height values in these two models were not significantly different at a level of 5%. The results of the paired sample t test showed that the nonlinear models M21 and M12 have predicted the height of Populus euophratica trees with appropriate accuracy. Two models (Prodan1 with the name of M12) and (Prodan2 with the name of M21) were selected as the best models based on the ranking of all model performance evaluation criteria in fit and validity data.
Conclusion: The majority of two-parameter models and some three-parameter models showed a significant fit with the data. However, in terms of all performance evaluation criteria, two three-parameter models were chosen as the best models. According to the results of this study and the wide range of non-linear two and three parameter models, mixed models that include one or two covariates in the modeling in addition to the main variables, more research is needed in larger geographical areas, wider sites and stands with different structures are done.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Inventory
  • Desert ecosystems
  • Nonlinear models
  • Height–diameter model

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پژوهش‌های علوم و فناوری چوب و جنگل
دوره 30، شماره 1
فروردین 1402
صفحه 87-106

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