Forest Fire Risk Assessment Using a Spatial Approach and GIS-Based Frequency Ratio (FR) Method in the Boozin and Marakhil Protected Area

Document Type : Complete scientific research article

Authors

1 Corresponding Author, Assistant Prof., Dept. of Agricultural and Natural Resources Development, Payame Noor University, Tehran, I.R. Iran.

2 Assistant Prof., Forests and Rangelands Research Department, West Azarbaijan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center (AREEO), Urmia, Iran.

3 Associate Prof., Institue of Agriculture, Water, Food, and Nutraceuticals, Mah. C., Islamic Azad University, Mahabad, Iran

Abstract

Background and Objectives: Fire is one of the most important factors in the destruction of forest ecosystems, which can have great effects on vegetation structure, forest fertility, soil degradation, ecosystem carbon storage, and Non-native plant invasions. Accurate assessment of forest fire risk and its zoning can have great practical importance in preventing fires and reducing their damages in line with effective environmental management. The integration of Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method and Geographic Information System (GIS) ) provides an effective approach for preparing Fire Risk Map (FRM). The Frequency Ratio (FR) method is one of the most widely used statistical models and MCDA methods, extensively applied in modeling environmental hazards, including forest fires. The objective of this study is to prepare and zone a forest fire risk map using FR method within GIS.
Materials and Methods: The Boozin and Marakhil Protected Area, located in the Central Zagros - Kermanshah province was selected as the study area due to its frequent fires in recent years. Influencing factors on forest fire occurrence were identified based on expert opinions and literature review. A total of 12 factors were identified, including distance to roads, distance to settlements, average annual precipitation, average annual temperature, forest cover density, range cover density, land use/land cover, population density, slope, aspect, elevation and distance to waterways. The calculation and determination of the relative importance of different classes of influencing factors was carried out using the FR method based on matching the burned areas map with the map of classes of factors affecting fires. Finally, the fire risk zoning map was obtained by overlaying digital maps of influencing factors in the ArcGIS software and classified into five risk classes (Very Low to Very High) using the Jenks natural breaks optimization method. The validation of the results was done by overlaying the zoning map with the fires that happened in the study area in 2016-2024.
Results: The final fire risk zoning map in the Boozin and Marakhil Protected area showed that 78.97% of the study area was in the high (46.81%) and very high (32.16%) risk class. Also, based on the results, by overlaying the recorded fire area map and the fire risk zoning map, 95.05% of the recorded fires were located in the high (25.39%) and very high (69.66%) risk class, indicating an accurate assessment and high validity of the final zoning map. By analyzing the area of the fire risk zoning map and the recorded fire area map across different risk classes and calculating the relative importance of each class in the study area, the Very High risk class demonstrated the highest relative importance (2.17).
Conclusion: The final zoning map can significantly aid in making informed management decisions for firefighting operations, optimal resource planning, personnel deployment and concentration of necessary equipment to deal with potential fires during fire season in high-risk zones. This study highlights the importance of preparing fire risk maps and zoning, which can facilitate prioritized preventive and control measures to prevent future forest degradation.

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References

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Journal of Wood and Forest Science and Technology
Volume 32, Issue 2
June 2025
Pages 1-24

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